March Madness Preview

Get your brackets ready, because its March, and all college basketball fans know what that means: March Madness! This year’s tournament starts on Sunday, March 13. While the seeding and conference tournaments get hammered out, we can always look ahead at the odds. Gonzaga is the current favorite, currently holding the #1 spot in the latest AP Poll. They have their odds of winning placed at +400. While they are the top team in college basketball, they come off an upset loss to #23 St. Mary’s. In fact, six of the top eight teams in the AP Poll are coming off losses, meaning this tournament has the potential to be hotly contested. Duke has been on a hot streak of late, winning their last 6 games in a row and climbing to the No. 4 spot. Their odds have been placed at +1200.

But one of the most polarizing teams in the country is Kentucky. They currently hold the No. 7 spot and have odds of +800. They’re undefeated at home, but hold a 5-5 record away, a .500 average. No other team in the top 11 has a .500-or-worse road record. Arizona also boasts an impressive resume, sitting behind only Gonzaga in terms of overall efficiency. They are a paint-dominating team, with their top three scorers ranging between the heights of 6’6” and 7’1”. These advantages lead to an impressive scoring average inside the arc, with 57.1% on all 2-point shots, and a lot of offensive rebounds, 11.8 per game. Just behind Arizona is Kansas.

The Jayhawks would have been in a better position if they had beaten Baylor this weekend, but with games against TCU and Texas, as well as the conference tournament, they should be seeded very highly come the tournament. Kansas can attribute this success to talent on the roster, namely senior Ochai Agbaji and junior Christian Braun. Agbaji has a shout for Big 12 Player of the Year. The roster drops a few levels after these two, however the return of Remy Martin from a knee injury could provide an escape route. Coming in at number 5 in the most recent AP Poll is the reigning champions Baylor. They beat Kansas by 10 and then held on to the number 5 spot when they played another Big 12 opponent, Texas. The Big 12 is stacked this year, and a 13-4 conference record is very impressive for Baylor. Few teams are as well rounded as Baylor, putting up impressive scoring displays from the arc as their top 5 scorers are guards. According to Kenpom, Baylor has the 13^th best defense in the country, and that translates to opponent turnovers, which Baylor is good at capitalizing on. While this is all well and good, Baylor still has a lot of work to do if they want a good seed for the tournament. A home win against Iowa State to close out the regular season gets the ball rolling, but a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament should make the Bears feel good about themselves on Selection Sunday.

The tournament isn’t limited to a few teams, however. These teams may have the best odds and chances, but they won’t be the only teams in the tournament. There are plenty of teams that have a legitimate chance, such as Arkansas, Syracuse, and Indiana. Andy Katz puts Arkansas at the top of his list. Arkansas won the tournament in 1994 and played in the final in 1995, but since then they haven’t had good runs in the NCAA tournament. After reaching the Sweet 16 in 1996, Arkansas hadn’t made it past the second round of the tournament until last season, when they reached the Elite Eight. They lost their two top scorers last year, Moses Moody and Justin Smith, with 16.8 and 13.6 points per game respectively. Arkansas retains JD Notae and Davonte Davis, however, and with transfers such as guard Chris Lykes from Miami(FL), Au’diese Toney from Pitt, and South Dakota’s Stanley Umude, the Razorbacks are looking like a force to be reckoned with.

Another team that shouldn’t be overlooked is Indiana. Mike Woodson is in his first year at his alma mater, and he and Indiana are looking for their first tournament appearance since 2016. The Hoosiers record last year was one to forget, 12-15 and 7-12 in the Big Ten, but they retained All-American candidate Trayce Jackson-Davis, and with a significant number of transfers, including but not limited to Xavier Johnson, who had 14.2 points per game and 5.7 assists per game at Pitt, and Parker Stewart, who had 19.2 points per game at UT-Martin in the 2019-2020 season.

With all these additions and factors to look forward to, and the fact that no team has a really clear edge, this March Madness tournament could be one for the ages