On February 12, 2017, the Grammy awards will be presented for the 59^th time.  The prolific year in music that was 2016 ensured a deep field of nominees, especially in the coveted Big Four categories.

Album of the Year:

25 — Adele
Lemonade — Beyoncé
Purpose — Justin Bieber
Views — Drake
A Sailor’s Guide To Earth — Sturgill Simpson

This category, the first of the Big Four, is a battle between two pop titans: Beyoncé and Adele.  Bieber, Drake, and lesser-known country artist Sturgill Simpson may as well not have been nominated.  Adele is an industry darling who has won all eight of her Grammy nominations since 2012.  25 flew off the shelves and Adele’s vocals are once-in-a-generation, but her music isn’t exactly groundbreaking.  This year, Beyoncé had the better album.  After her self-titled project was upset by Beck’s Morning Phase for AOTY in 2015, the Grammy committee will hopefully atone for their sins and hand Lemonade the award.  The visual album pushed barriers in its content as well as its format, and enjoyed success in critical and commercial spheres.

Snubs: News of David Bowie’s death earlier this year broke just days after he released his transcendent album Blackstar.  He’s only won two Grammys (one Lifetime Achievement and one for a music video) despite being hailed as one of the greatest musicians ever, and an AOTY nod would’ve been a great chance to honor him.  Hopefully this means a win for him in a smaller category.  Given Kanye West’s awkward history with the Grammys and a turbulent rollout, it’s no surprise that The Life of Pablo wasn’t honored in this category, but it was still better than all but one of the nominees.  Coloring Book, Chance the Rapper’s free, streaming-only mixtape, may have been too ahead of its time for AOTY consideration.

Record of the Year:

“Hello” — Adele
“Formation” — Beyoncé
“7 Years” — Lukas Graham
“Work” — Rihanna Featuring Drake
“Stressed Out” — Twenty One Pilots

The second Beyoncé vs Adele category parallels the first; “Hello” was bigger and “Formation” was better.  The difference is that, unlike the other three categories, ROTY values sales and the artist’s performance, so the smart money will be on Adele.  Rihanna could play in with “Work” thanks to its massive radio success, but she and Drake will probably fall short.   “Stressed Out” was big this summer, but seems comparatively mediocre when tossed in ROTY with the three 2016 pop queens.  “7 Years” shouldn’t be nominated for any awards at all, but the Grammys wouldn’t be the Grammys if they didn’t get at least one Big Four nominee wrong.  The committee generally eats up cheesy, piano-ballad-y schmaltz, so Lukas Graham shouldn’t be counted out in smaller categories.

Snubs: “One Dance” by Drake is a glaringly obvious omission that makes Lukas Graham’s inclusion all the more tragic.  It logged a record number of streams on Spotify, gave Drake his well-deserved first solo #1, and was hailed as the definitive Song of the Summer in the process.  “Closer” by the Chainsmokers featuring Halsey spent an incredible 12 weeks topping the Billboard charts.  It was not only the longest #1 streak of 2016, it was the fourth longest of all time (a 6-way tie, but still).

Song of the Year:

“Formation” — Khalif Brown, Asheton Hogan, Beyoncé Knowles & Michael L. Williams II, songwriters (Beyoncé)
“Hello” — Adele Adkins & Greg Kurstin, songwriters (Adele)
“I Took A Pill In Ibiza” — Mike Posner, songwriter (Mike Posner)
“Love Yourself” — Justin Bieber, Benjamin Levin & Ed Sheeran, songwriters (Justin Bieber)
“7 Years” — Lukas Forchhammer, Stefan Forrest, Morten Pilegaard & Morten Ristorp, songwriters (Lukas Graham)

As the long list of credits after each song spells out, Song of the Year is awarded to writers.  This means a stunning vocal performance won’t have much of an effect on the results, which is a strike against Adele.  If “Hello” got the record, “Formation” should get the song.  Its lyrics were unexpected and fun, its production was wild, and it quickly became an anthem without taking itself too seriously.  If “7 Years” were to pull off an upset, this would be the category; it was praised for its storytelling and not much else.  “I Took A Pill In Ibiza” would stand a better chance if it wasn’t an expository of EDM culture.  No matter how artful it is, a song about the darker side of the music industry isn’t likely to win a major award at an event that defines the music industry.  “Love Yourself” is sweet and has a cowrite from Ed Sheeran, who the Grammys are practically married to, but it won’t be enough to push the acoustic tune to the top of this category.

Snubs: “Lazarus” by David Bowie, which begins with the lyric “Look up here, I’m in heaven,” is a prophetic, heartbreaking piece of songwriting that deserved a nod here.  “My Church” by Maren Morris is a catchy tune about the love of music, which the Grammys usually fawn over, especially when young country stars are involved.  “Ultralight Beam” by Kanye West ft. Chance the Rapper is nothing short of heavenly.

Best New Artist:

Kelsea Ballerini
The Chainsmokers
Chance The Rapper
Maren Morris
Anderson .Paak

Anderson, Kelsea, and Maren, while they are intriguing artists, probably haven’t quite reached enough mainstream ears to earn this award over Chance the Rapper or The Chainsmokers, who both had breakout years.  Wide-eyed, humble Chano deserves to defeat the overrated frat bros, who “rage every night” and are “way too good at drinking” (their words).  The duo enjoyed untold success this year after their singles “Roses,” “Don’t Let Me Down,” and “Closer” dominated the Billboard Hot 100, but they have yet to release a debut album.  Just like 2014 winners Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, it seems like they’ve already peaked, whereas Chance is just getting started on what looks to be a long, prosperous career.  The most logical choice for this category is Chance The Rapper.

All that being said, there is nothing the Grammy committee loves more than a good Best New Artist upset.  Drake and Justin Bieber both lost the award to little-known Esperanza Spalding in 2011.  Taylor Swift, Kanye West, Frank Ocean, Ed Sheeran, Kendrick Lamar, J. Cole, Nicki Minaj, and Britney Spears are also on the seemingly infinite list of famous Best New Artist losers.  If an upset is pulled off this year, it’ll be country girl Maren Morris who comes out on top, thanks to “My Church” and her impressive debut, Hero, behind it.

Snubs: Bryson Tiller had a stronger sales year than Anderson .Paak and could easily have been subbed into the hip-hop spot he occupies.  Desiigner’s “Panda” seemed like a one-hit wonder riding on Kanye’s back until “Timmy Turner” came along, piquing the curiosity of rap fans in Atlanta, New York, and everywhere else.  The young artist’s exclusion should satisfy fans of fellow trap mumbler Future, whose fans think he could just be a bad knock-off of their fave.

Winners:

Lemonade — Beyoncé
“Hello” — Adele
“Formation” — Khalif Brown, Asheton Hogan, Beyoncé Knowles & Michael L. Williams II, songwriters (Beyoncé)
Chance The Rapper